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Wednesday, August 18, 2004

Bush Wins with 58%

So says Ray Fair, an economist who's developed a vote equation, which is accurate in predictions up to 97.5%.

The dismal job report which was just released lowered Bush's margin of victory to its current 58%, according to Fair's model.

What's a Kerry supporter to do? First off, hope that JK starts spouting something other than positions that he thinks voters want to hear. Secondly, take solace in the fact that you have to go back to GWBI to find a President who won more than 50% of the vote, and all the way back to Reagan v Mondale to see anything as high as 58%.

NASTYBOY replies:
Wow, I've only seen a couple polls with Bush around 50%. In the latest Zogby poll, Kerry leads 47% to 43%. The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%. And RealClearPolitics shows a polling average of 48.3 Kerry and 46.3 Bush.

Those are nowhere near 58%.

jodru admonishes:
Remember, this isn't a poll. This is a mathematical model which predicts the outcome of presidential elections. It uses factors from the economy in order to determine the outcome, and it does so with only a 2.5% margin of error. You can read Fair's original paper, which was published in 1978, and see how he's tinkered with the model a few times to greatly increase it's accuracy.

Polls in August are almost useless. There is still a great deal of time before people begin to pay attention to this election, which is when the polls become more helpful. That being said, for Bush to add 12-15 points between now and the election would be pretty surprising.

NASTYBOY questions the admonishment:
I understand that it wasn't a poll. My point was that Bush doesn't even come close to 58% and, quite certainly, never will.


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